Session II

Interactive I

Environmental impact on short-term mortality
By Jens Robben (UvA)

In this presentation we study the short-term association between environmental factors (weather and air pollution) and weekly mortality rates in small regions in Europe. We develop a model that describes a region-specific, seasonal trend observed within the historical weekly mortality rates. Using a machine learning algorithm, we then explain deviations from this baseline model using the environmental factors. In a case study of more than 550 European regions, we find that

Interactive II

Lessons learned international and future actuarial collaboration
By Kees Thiers (Achmea)

In our breakout session we present a high-level view of the international lessons we have learned to date, primarily from the COVID-19 pandemic, but also build on lessons learned from other pandemics such as HIV/AIDS and the 1918 influenza pandemic. We present various actions and analyses in which members of the actuarial profession have been involved and considers several actuarial practice areas in order to provide education for the profession to respond to future pandemics.

Interactive III

Pandemic Scenario Modelling: Combining Data and Expertise to Reinforce ORSA for Uncertainty 
By Frans Kuys & Jayadevan Vijayan (Finalyse)

In our breakout session, we explore how insurers can strengthen their Own Risk and Solvency Assessment (ORSA) to better prepare for uncertain events such as pandemics. The COVID-19 crisis has demonstrated the importance of having robust scenario models. But how do you develop effective pandemic scenarios for ORSA? And how do you deal with the uncertainty inherent in such extreme events? We will explore some of the techniques insurers use to highlight the practical application of these strategies.

Interactive IV

New instruments like pandemic derivatives
By Daniel Linders (UvA)

In this presentation we will discuss the existing mechanism to share pandemic risk with the financial markets. We will in particular focus on the pandemic bond which was launched by the World Bank to allow investors to take over the pandemic risk from a group of countries. An innovative aspect of the design of the bond was a risk sharing mechanism between countries with strong economies and countries with weaker economies. Based on the experience with the pandemic bond, we will look forward to see how to improve the structure and how to design new products to offset and share pandemic risks.