Plenary sessions

Plenary session I

The impact of COVID-19 on mortality
By RCLR: Frank van Berkum & Torsten Kleinow (UvA)

During 2020 and 2021, when the observed effects of the COVID-19 pandemic were most severe, there was a substantial increase in all-cause mortality rates. In this presentation, we explore the results of our research into excess mortality for specific causes during those years and discuss ways to develop mortality projections after the pandemic.

In the first part of our presentation, we will study how cause-specific mortality rates have changed during the pandemic and how decomposing all-cause mortality into specific causes allows us to identify trends and develop projections for future changes in mortality. This part of the talk is based on data from Eurostat for several European countries.

The second part of the talk will focus on a granular model for mortality in the Netherlands during the pandemic that enables us to study excess mortality in more detail. Using Dutch registry data from CBS, our model takes socio-economic characteristics and the vaccination status of individuals into account. First, we model pre-pandemic mortality to predict mortality during 2020-2021, after which we quantify and analyse excess mortality by cause-of-death.

Plenary session II

Impact of Covid-19 on Individual Income and Collective Income Products
By Thomas de Boer & Bertus Veurink (NN)

In this presentation, we will introduce the modeling of Dutch individual income and group income products. Following the introduction, we will discuss how Covid-19 has impacted NN Schade's individual income pricing and reserving. For the collective income products (WIA-related products), we will provide an overview of the nationwide effects and attempt to establish a connection to NN Schade's reserving.

Plenary session III 

Lessons learned from the Covid pandemic - crisis management
By Anja Schreijer (PDPC)

In this presentation, Anja Schreijer offers a glimpse into the world of infectious disease control, the lessons learned from COVID-19, and the vision for the future of pandemic preparedness.
What are the current developments? What threats are there? How can we prepare effectively for the next pandemic? And what is the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration in this field?

Plenary session IV 

Is our organisation crisis-ready?
By Yannick Hiensch, Sarah van Hecke & Juriaan Jacobs(Deloitte)

 

Looking forward

Actuarial Expertise in Large-Scale Disasters
By Bas Kolen (UvA)

In this section, we examine the application of risk analysis in the context of pandemics and large-scale flooding. While both events are highly unlikely, their potential impact is catastrophic. In the Netherlands, these risks are among the highest priorities in the national risk assessment. We analyze the similarities and differences in disaster response strategies. In both cases experience and data is limited, critical decisions—such as mass evacuations or targeted lockdowns—are based on forecasts and must account for significant uncertainties. A key distinction lies in the duration of the disaster itself. During this session, we will explore the role of actuarial science in assessing and managing these risks, as well as its added value for the financial sector and government agencies, including crisis management teams.